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Date:         Sat, 11 Mar 2006 01:01:45 -0500
Reply-To:     Joy Hecht <jhecht@ALUM.MIT.EDU>
Sender:       Vanagon Mailing List <vanagon@gerry.vanagon.com>
From:         Joy Hecht <jhecht@ALUM.MIT.EDU>
Subject:      Re: numbers (was subaru conversions) - It's Fryeday, isn't it?
Content-Type: multipart/mixed;

Wow, you've all finally come around to what I do when I'm not in my van - economic analysis of the value of non-marketed environmental services and costs! I'm so excited, I'm actually leaving my work sig file below, instead of my Vanagon one!

Ri, I'm definitely with you on the on the social costs of our dependence on petroleum products. It would be great if the full economic and social costs of the Iraq war, to Iraqis as well as Americans, were factored into the price of gasoline. That would be a fun analysis to do, too. None of us could afford to drive any more, if that were the case - but if petroleum-based wars had to be funded that way, we'd have fewer of them, and the government could spend our tax dollars on much more productive things.

Of course to compare with biodiesel, we'd have to factor in the health costs to the folks who ate all those French fries, too. :-)

And unfortunately aside from the somewhat better gas mileage with diesel, biodiesel is still emitting greenhouse gases. Gotta take that into account with both fuels.

I think it's time for one of you techie guys to design a conversion to a really efficient biodiesel hybrid engine for the Vanagon. Once it's past beta testing, I'll install it! I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is, to avoid imposing costs on society, as long as I'm not going to get swamped with mechanical problems I can't handle. (My car - yeah, I still have one, back in Virginia - is a Prius.)

The weird thing is, I'm here in Malawi looking at the costs of forest degradation. The forests are degrading like mad because something like 90% of the energy in this country comes from wood. I've been doing depressing projections that end up showing that in the region I'm studying there will be no more natural wood in about five years. And then we have absolutely no idea what folks are going to do - no other energy source is anywhere near as cheap. These are super poor people who cook on wood or, if they get richer, on charcoal, which is even worse for the forests. They can't afford stoves that might use electric or gas. Can't even afford little artisanal stoves that burn wood more efficiently. I find myself wishing they could find some super cheap stoves that burn some kind of petroleum product instead of wood, because if the forests all go, so do a lot of other valuable resources that depend on forests.

Pretty weird, when the whole rest of the world is looking for ways to get OFF petroleum, that it would be a godsend in Malawi.

It's still Fryeday somewhere out there, isn't it??? It's Saturday morning here, so I’m okay for those of you in the Central time zone and points west...

Numbers don't rule - for one thing, people who make decisions rarely really use them. And they are very tricky - how we do these valuation studies REALLY can rig the results. But I'm still all for numbers!

Joy

p.s. Ri, re buying Chinese products - the harm caused might be more to US production than to Chinese workers. They get paid peanuts by our standards, and working conditions and hours aren't up to ours, but they are also choosing factory work over the alternatives, which means for them it's an improvement. That doesn't mean we should ignore the human rights issues, but I’m sure those Chinese workers would rather we bought their products than US ones.

What's more, the Chinese government is talking an incredible line at the moment about building environmental accounts and using green GDP figures to evaluate the performance of local public officials. If they are for real - it has been all over the mainstream news, e.g. the Economist, the BBC, but I can't find any coherent technical information about what they propose - it will be pretty incredible, and much more than any western government has done.

******************************************************************* Dr. Joy E. Hecht Consultant on Environmental Policy and Information

Mulanje Mountain Valuation Study COMPASS-II (USAID) / Mount Mulanje Conservation Trust mobile: 265 08 205 914

email: jhecht@alum.mit.edu mobile/USA: 1-202-494-1162 URL: http://www.joyhecht.net/professional.html *******************************************************************

:::-----Original Message----- :::From: Vanagon Mailing List [mailto:vanagon@GERRY.VANAGON.COM] On Behalf :::Of River Clan :::Sent: Friday, March 10, 2006 7:32 PM :::To: vanagon@GERRY.VANAGON.COM :::Subject: Re: Diesel Subaru Conversions ::: :::There is more to running biodiesel than cost. People don't put in :::diesels to run petroleum, at least not many..... ::: :::See, in America, we don't pay "True Costs". Instead, it is subsidized :::by occupation, strong arming, slave labor in 3rd world countries, :::etc. All so we can have a better standard of living. Just like when :::we lived in Rome. ::: :::Some of us ideological people look further than just the $$, and :::think about the implications to not only the world, but to our soul :::for being on this slippery slope of riding on others backs. ::: :::Save a buck at Walmart, and cause that laborer in China to work in :::conditions that we wouldn't ask of our pets. ::: :::Fuel is the same. How many Iraqis & Marines lives are in each tank of :::gas across america? ::: :::Numbers rule! Now add all the costs that were forgotten, or hidden by :::subsidized war for oil. ::: :::Cheers! ::: :::Ri :::http://www.greaseworks.org ::: ::: :::On Mar 10, 2006, at 7:32 AM, Pensioner wrote: ::: :::> Musing over conversions, one of my many talents, brings me to :::> consider the :::> cost-benefit scenarios. Let's postulate that we drive 10000 miles :::> per year :::> just to use easy numbers. Discounting the normal maintenance for :::> both a :::> converted vanagon and a non-converted vanagon, the costs of :::> conversion seem :::> to range from ~$14000 (not a misprint) in my case to perhaps $3000 :::> for an :::> average of $5000 (high but we have to start somewhere). :::> :::> If fuel costs over time are the principal reason for going to :::> diesel (not :::> fuel availability, or the desire to side with Willie on the BioDiesel :::> concert) then it makes sense to look at the fuel savings one would :::> enjoy :::> over that 10000 miles per year. Diesel currently costs about %10 :::> more than :::> 87 Octane and is likely to stay that way. For $2.50/gallon 87 :::> octane let's :::> say and vanagon average fuel efficiency of 17 miles per gallon. :::> The gallons :::> per year is easily found to be ~588 gallons times $2.50 gives $1470 :::> per year :::> fuel cost before conversion. If you go with diesel the fuel :::> consumption :::> will probably be on the order of 25 miles per gallon. For the same :::> 10000 :::> miles per year you'll pay $1100 in fuel costs including the %10 :::> higher price :::> for diesel. You will get additional range between fuel stops but :::> you'll :::> need it as not all fuel services feature diesel. :::> :::> In summary you'll save $370 per year in fuel costs for 10000 miles :::> per year. :::> How many years to break even on the installation is left as an :::> excercise for :::> the reader. :::> :::> Seems to be over ten years if your previously owned motor lasts :::> that long. :::> FTSOE let's say it does. You will have saved $3700 towards the motor :::> replacement. :::> :::> The above example is to be considered a conservative estimate :::> process, your :::> mileage, tolerance, costs, will no doubt be different. :::> :::> "If a man professes knowledge but cannot express that knowledge in :::> numbers, :::> then that knowledge is of a meagre and insufficient kind" -- Lord :::> Kelvin :::> :::> Numbers rule! :::>


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