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Date:         Wed, 14 Mar 2007 21:22:20 -0800
Reply-To:     Pensioner <al_knoll@PACBELL.NET>
Sender:       Vanagon Mailing List <vanagon@gerry.vanagon.com>
From:         Pensioner <al_knoll@PACBELL.NET>
Subject:      Re: Global Warming My Vanagon?
In-Reply-To:  <200703150401.l2F41Gl4013033@nlpi047.sbcis.sbc.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"

Not to fuddle about much but... The problem is we have met the enemy and he is us. For any resource of quantity R, a per-capita demand (that's you) of d per year will tell you easily how long the resource will last depending on how many d's there are. Demand units are (d) per folk. Multiply the number of folk N (that's us) by the demand (d) and you have Nxd. This is the drawdown on the resource R. EG: If d is 20 sheets a day of toilet tissue and there are 100 of us that's 100x20 or 2000 TP per day. If the defined ultimate TP resource is 2000x1000 or 2M then in one thousand days you will be wiping with ... insert favorite wiping device here....instead of what the bears think is the very best quality...

EG: If there are 100 instances of a particular wear item on your Vanagon in stock throughout the world and no more are being manufactured and the demand is 50 per year and the life of the part is 5 years. How many should you squirrel away (sorry mike) to keep your vanagon on the road for ten years and when should you do it? 2? RIGHT NOW! now how many future thinkers are there like you 25? 50? 100?...you get the drill. Get ready Ron...

Do the math. The model is simple. Now fearlessly apply it to your present parameter space. Shocking, eh? But you knew that, right? Bumping up against reality can be a sobering experience. Or...you could sell the van to BenT.


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