Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2008 04:18:49 -0800
Reply-To: Anthony Egeln <regnsuzanne@YAHOO.COM>
Sender: Vanagon Mailing List <vanagon@gerry.vanagon.com>
From: Anthony Egeln <regnsuzanne@YAHOO.COM>
Subject: Re: Zetec diesel
In-Reply-To: <ac1f198b0802192349g1fc467f5lf58ad2c86d5a4865@mail.gmail.com>
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Jim,
Thanks for your usual excellent insightful and thoughtful reply.
But all politics aside........technically is the TDCi engine considered "clean diesel" in its current form of development?
Thanks, Anthony
'89 Syncro GL (Hidalgo)
Jim Akiba <syncrolist@bostig.com> wrote: The TDCi gets great reviews, I've never seen or driven one. Aside
from the immediate problem of them being unavailable in the US, so are
their parts. As far as when or if it'll come to the states, it's a
pretty sure bet that any version of it won't be before 2012 if ever at
all. In 04 when we first got rolling with the zetecs I thought more
like 2009, and there was lot's of talk of both biodiesel and
cellulosic ethanol as alternative fuels. I think perhaps more telling
was that the federal government was also talking clean diesel(from
mobile sources). But now in 08, and pretty much as of early 07,
serious talk of clean diesel as a bullet point or pillar for policy
and initiatives like 20 in 10 has completely disappeared, replaced by
ethanol/cellulosic ethanol, and the rest of the discussion going to
GHG(green house gas) emissions rights and bickering over
CAFE(Corporate Average Fuel Economy) and mileage requirement
determination.
There is clean diesel reflected in the EPA budgets, but for clean
diesel it is fairly low, isn't slated to grow at all for 08-09, and is
almost entirely for Non-road diesels. Some of the efforts might
trickle down to mobile sources, but they aren't even really spending
to meet CA non-road diesel emissions perhaps because there are so many
unkowns when it comes to how the state/fed will work out their
emissions restriction rights. Since this is case it seems the
expensive to achieve CA regulations won't get targeted unless they
force automakers to do so, or unless they do so voluntarily. The
biggest active clean diesel initiative I know of is for diesel
retrofit for heavy duty diesels.. and even then, it's voluntary.
I never thought that watching politics could yield so much info about
cars, but it makes sense since it almost directly affects the market,
and indeed the players in the market affect the politics.
Just as quickly as diesel/bio-diesel interest is proliferating in
alternative fuel proponent communities, the cost risks associated with
meeting the equally fast moving anti-pollution legislation prevents
them from infiltrating. I think it is likely to continue to do so
until someone has a breakthrough success with clean diesel at
substantially lower cost than what is available either now or perhaps
even what's possible within the next 2-3 years, but I hope to be
proven wrong.
I been developing a sinking feeling that the real motivator that best
explains the departure from clean diesel interest isn't just what we
know, but the fear of what we don't yet. The risks are high for
automakers financially, since if they invest heavily in clean diesel
and CA wins the right to control is own GHG laws it could easily deny
them the right to sell into the biggest markets in the country(hmm
that problem seems so familiar to me for some reason?) if the
restrictions are ahead of development. Furthermore, CA isn't going to
feel like it needs to help on the clean diesel front, since it is
working hard now to legislate and force fleet overturn in CA, which is
their way of saying "shut up, we're forcing people to buy your new
cars" to automakers, while also actually having the effect they want
and pulling all of the ancient gross polluters that never rust off the
roads. Of course this means much of the legal side of things is up in
the air still, and we'll pretty much have to wait and see how it pans
out. In the development cycle the last thing you want is a moving
target since it can by definition stop being a cycle altogether.
Actually that's pretty much true all the time unless the point of the
exercise is to show off how well you can hit a moving target, or if
you have plenty of chances to hit it(which requires time/resources)..
which nobody has or will part with easily.
So despite the appeal of the diesels and their pros, I wouldn't hold
my breath until 2010 for the first noticeable resumption in serious
clean diesel policy, since 2010 is when the 4% per year CAFE
requirement kicks in... especially if other technologies don't pan
out(which doesn't appear to be happening, enzymes for cellulosic
ethanol production have been cut in cost by 10 times in the last
couple years). If clean diesel has a cost breakthrough AND emissions
legislation don't continue to ramp at the same pace AND the other
options for reductions in fuel usage fall short, then we might see
it.. but that's a lot of ifs. Actually the whitehouse version of the
07 Energy/Safety bill was more aggressive than the one that congress
passed, and would perhaps have helped introduce the need for clean
diesels sooner if ever by making it even harder to meet the CAFE
requirements without them.
whoa that was long...
To answer the questions shortly, definitively, and with opinion:
better than 30? Yes.
know much about it? Not really. But it will fit.
have contact at ford, to ask about? Yes, and the answer in early 06
was still "No current plans". I'd be VERY surprised if it's changed
since then given how things have been moving.
We might get the chance to go to sweden and convert a vanagon to a
TDCi to see for ourselves if it can be done.. but it's just talk and
mostly dream at this point, there is no timeline for us even doing it,
and it wouldn't actually in the end make financial sense from the
business or customer point of view, but it would be cool.
Jim Akiba
On 2/19/08, Anthony Egeln wrote:
> Wow! One review done in the UK says the Zetec Diesel Focus averages 58 mpg...and their highway best was 75 mpg!
>
> Now the Focus is a small car, but maybe the vanagon conversion could do better than 30?
>
> Bostig fellas...know anything about this engine?
>
> Anyone have a contact at Ford that could inquiry about future US models?
>
> Anthony
> '89 Syncro GL (Hidalgo)
>
>
> Allan Streib wrote: On a whim I googled "Zetec diesel" and it seems that there is such a
> beast. 1.6l "TDCi" a/k/a the DV6. Are these available at all in the
> US? Would they work with the Bostig kit?
>
> Allan
> --
> 1991 Vanagon GL
>
>
>
> ---------------------------------
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