Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2008 12:00:47 -0500
Reply-To: Wesley Pegden <wes@CS.UCHICAGO.EDU>
Sender: Vanagon Mailing List <vanagon@gerry.vanagon.com>
From: Wesley Pegden <wes@CS.UCHICAGO.EDU>
Subject: Re: Zetec diesel
In-Reply-To: <ac1f198b0802200646w75a5c686p687b673ad6d76d38@mail.gmail.com>
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I thought part of the problem with the clean diesels was that standards
for U.S. diesel fuel aren't yet sufficient for their operation? I just
bring this up because if it's the case, then importing these things
might not be a good idea.
-Wes
Jim Akiba wrote:
> No. In fact nobody has a clean diesel in production(clean meaning 50
> state legal). Daimler, and VAG which together are the BlueTec Diesel
> marketing coalition showed T2B5(Tier 2 bin 5) diesels at this year's
> NAIAS, but it is still up in the air if they are going to be allowed
> to sell them to only 45 states, or if the CARB adopting states will
> allow sales too. If they aren't allowed to sell to 50 states, it'll
> likely crush or at least stall further clean diesel efforts in the
> near future.
>
> Jim Akiba
>
> On 2/20/08, Anthony Egeln <regnsuzanne@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>> Jim,
>>
>> Thanks for your usual excellent insightful and thoughtful reply.
>>
>> But all politics aside........technically is the TDCi engine considered "clean diesel" in its current form of development?
>>
>> Thanks, Anthony
>> '89 Syncro GL (Hidalgo)
>>
>>
>> Jim Akiba <syncrolist@bostig.com> wrote: The TDCi gets great reviews, I've never seen or driven one. Aside
>> from the immediate problem of them being unavailable in the US, so are
>> their parts. As far as when or if it'll come to the states, it's a
>> pretty sure bet that any version of it won't be before 2012 if ever at
>> all. In 04 when we first got rolling with the zetecs I thought more
>> like 2009, and there was lot's of talk of both biodiesel and
>> cellulosic ethanol as alternative fuels. I think perhaps more telling
>> was that the federal government was also talking clean diesel(from
>> mobile sources). But now in 08, and pretty much as of early 07,
>> serious talk of clean diesel as a bullet point or pillar for policy
>> and initiatives like 20 in 10 has completely disappeared, replaced by
>> ethanol/cellulosic ethanol, and the rest of the discussion going to
>> GHG(green house gas) emissions rights and bickering over
>> CAFE(Corporate Average Fuel Economy) and mileage requirement
>> determination.
>>
>> There is clean diesel reflected in the EPA budgets, but for clean
>> diesel it is fairly low, isn't slated to grow at all for 08-09, and is
>> almost entirely for Non-road diesels. Some of the efforts might
>> trickle down to mobile sources, but they aren't even really spending
>> to meet CA non-road diesel emissions perhaps because there are so many
>> unkowns when it comes to how the state/fed will work out their
>> emissions restriction rights. Since this is case it seems the
>> expensive to achieve CA regulations won't get targeted unless they
>> force automakers to do so, or unless they do so voluntarily. The
>> biggest active clean diesel initiative I know of is for diesel
>> retrofit for heavy duty diesels.. and even then, it's voluntary.
>>
>> I never thought that watching politics could yield so much info about
>> cars, but it makes sense since it almost directly affects the market,
>> and indeed the players in the market affect the politics.
>>
>> Just as quickly as diesel/bio-diesel interest is proliferating in
>> alternative fuel proponent communities, the cost risks associated with
>> meeting the equally fast moving anti-pollution legislation prevents
>> them from infiltrating. I think it is likely to continue to do so
>> until someone has a breakthrough success with clean diesel at
>> substantially lower cost than what is available either now or perhaps
>> even what's possible within the next 2-3 years, but I hope to be
>> proven wrong.
>>
>> I been developing a sinking feeling that the real motivator that best
>> explains the departure from clean diesel interest isn't just what we
>> know, but the fear of what we don't yet. The risks are high for
>> automakers financially, since if they invest heavily in clean diesel
>> and CA wins the right to control is own GHG laws it could easily deny
>> them the right to sell into the biggest markets in the country(hmm
>> that problem seems so familiar to me for some reason?) if the
>> restrictions are ahead of development. Furthermore, CA isn't going to
>> feel like it needs to help on the clean diesel front, since it is
>> working hard now to legislate and force fleet overturn in CA, which is
>> their way of saying "shut up, we're forcing people to buy your new
>> cars" to automakers, while also actually having the effect they want
>> and pulling all of the ancient gross polluters that never rust off the
>> roads. Of course this means much of the legal side of things is up in
>> the air still, and we'll pretty much have to wait and see how it pans
>> out. In the development cycle the last thing you want is a moving
>> target since it can by definition stop being a cycle altogether.
>> Actually that's pretty much true all the time unless the point of the
>> exercise is to show off how well you can hit a moving target, or if
>> you have plenty of chances to hit it(which requires time/resources)..
>> which nobody has or will part with easily.
>>
>> So despite the appeal of the diesels and their pros, I wouldn't hold
>> my breath until 2010 for the first noticeable resumption in serious
>> clean diesel policy, since 2010 is when the 4% per year CAFE
>> requirement kicks in... especially if other technologies don't pan
>> out(which doesn't appear to be happening, enzymes for cellulosic
>> ethanol production have been cut in cost by 10 times in the last
>> couple years). If clean diesel has a cost breakthrough AND emissions
>> legislation don't continue to ramp at the same pace AND the other
>> options for reductions in fuel usage fall short, then we might see
>> it.. but that's a lot of ifs. Actually the whitehouse version of the
>> 07 Energy/Safety bill was more aggressive than the one that congress
>> passed, and would perhaps have helped introduce the need for clean
>> diesels sooner if ever by making it even harder to meet the CAFE
>> requirements without them.
>>
>> whoa that was long...
>>
>> To answer the questions shortly, definitively, and with opinion:
>>
>> better than 30? Yes.
>>
>> know much about it? Not really. But it will fit.
>>
>> have contact at ford, to ask about? Yes, and the answer in early 06
>> was still "No current plans". I'd be VERY surprised if it's changed
>> since then given how things have been moving.
>>
>> We might get the chance to go to sweden and convert a vanagon to a
>> TDCi to see for ourselves if it can be done.. but it's just talk and
>> mostly dream at this point, there is no timeline for us even doing it,
>> and it wouldn't actually in the end make financial sense from the
>> business or customer point of view, but it would be cool.
>>
>> Jim Akiba
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On 2/19/08, Anthony Egeln wrote:
>>
>>> Wow! One review done in the UK says the Zetec Diesel Focus averages 58 mpg...and their highway best was 75 mpg!
>>>
>>> Now the Focus is a small car, but maybe the vanagon conversion could do better than 30?
>>>
>>> Bostig fellas...know anything about this engine?
>>>
>>> Anyone have a contact at Ford that could inquiry about future US models?
>>>
>>> Anthony
>>> '89 Syncro GL (Hidalgo)
>>>
>>>
>>> Allan Streib wrote: On a whim I googled "Zetec diesel" and it seems that there is such a
>>> beast. 1.6l "TDCi" a/k/a the DV6. Are these available at all in the
>>> US? Would they work with the Bostig kit?
>>>
>>> Allan
>>> --
>>> 1991 Vanagon GL
>>>
>>>
>>>
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