Date: Wed, 23 Apr 2008 16:37:37 -0500
Reply-To: Jim Felder <jim.felder@GMAIL.COM>
Sender: Vanagon Mailing List <vanagon@gerry.vanagon.com>
From: Jim Felder <jim.felder@GMAIL.COM>
Subject: Re: Gas, milage, etc (was Air Engine)
In-Reply-To: <13ef01c8a57d$6ced1170$6401a8c0@DJZL7KF1>
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Scott and all,
I agree in general with the scenarios presented here, but I warn on
one point and add another.
First, the speculative component of fuel (what might it be, 30
percent? More? No one is saying) will disappear after the coming crash
landing happens and things settle out. But will it bring down the
price of oil enough to offset the HUGE demand that India and China are
putting into the market? I doubt it. No one knows, but watch out.
Second, I see in most of the posts that the writers are old as me more
or less and remember what happened during the first two energy crises.
It took a little while, and then everybody adjusted to the higher
costs of fuel and then--BOOM--the higher cost of oil showed up in
everything we weren't thinking about. That's the aftershock, the mess
that it will leave the entire economy in.
And about that hundred dollar oil, fifty dollar oil, eighty dollar
oil. Bull****. There's nothing magic about hundred dollars a barrel.
Better figure out how to deal with $350 a barrel because that's where
it's headed. I'll tell you what happened between the first energy
crisis (that was like getting a warning ticket, and we didn't slow
down) and now: Trent Lott held up a picture of a Yugo in front of
congress to denounce tightening the CAFE and announced "this is the
car that the liberals want you to drive."
And they all believed him because they wanted to. And so here we are.
Now, as this thread states, there will be new cars with high mileage
and we will finally be free from the hordes of unsafe, obese SUVs and
trucks that clog our roads. But with declining wages, rising health
and food costs, who but the wealthiest will be able to afford these
new high-mileage cars? Will people who moved to the suburbs to escape
the high cost of city housing be forced to move back into homes they
can't afford just to be able to afford the fuel? Stay tuned.
Jim
On 4/23/08, Scott Daniel - Shazam <scottdaniel@turbovans.com> wrote:
> Re Eurovan and fuel milage :
> One plan in the back of my mind is do a diesel conversion on one for
> someone.
> We'll just get the Canadian diesel inline 5 and matching trans out of
> Canada, and it might all just bolt together.
>
> Regarding the price of oil.
> One analysis ........read about this in the Wall Street Journal........
> It's recognized that the price of oil is on a Bubble curve now......a very
> very servere bubble - and in all speculative markets, like real estate ,
> perfect example...........when prices keep going up and up .....the bubble
> affect, eventually it collapses.
> This one analyst was saying oil will be back down to 80 a barrel by late
> summer ( it hit a mid-day high of $ 117 per barrel recently )
> ...........another guy said 50 a barrel, though that's hard to imagine.
>
> They are expecting some affect of less consumption due to high prices that
> we currently have, and more oil production from places not producing as much
> as they could, and that'll bring down the price of a barrel of oil on the
> world market.
> Somehow though .........if the price of a barrel of oil goes back down, say
> 30 % ..........I doubt the pump price per gallon will also go down that
> much.
>
> Another bottom line - Americans that can afford to spend a few hundred a
> month on gas - don't mind spending it, and are not very concerened about the
> environment or the long term overall picture of the supply and costs of
> energy. Live for today, worry about it tomorrow if things go south, so to
> speak.
> Be interesting to see what happens.
> Scott
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Vanagon Mailing List [mailto:vanagon@gerry.vanagon.com] On Behalf Of
> BJ Feddish
> Sent: Wednesday, April 23, 2008 12:53 PM
> To: vanagon@GERRY.VANAGON.COM
> Subject: Gas, milage, etc (was Air Engine)
>
> >> When they rationed gas in the '70's, we were forced to do just that, by
> those long lines at the pump and limits of availability. Who was controlling
> that at that time? Auto manufacturer's were required to sell down-sized
> economy cars. The land-yachts were parked everywhere and you couldn't give
> them away! We need to return to this method of limitations, to help fix the
> mess we seem to have gotten ourselves into. <<
>
>
> Absolutely.
>
> The problems is when gas hit the equivalent of $3 a gallon back in '82 it
> stopped right about there for about 20 years. Yes, VW, Toyota, Datsun, etc.
> were making high mileage cars in the 70's and when gas got expensive people
> were abandoning their American cars in droves and buying these gas sippers.
> America tried to catch up with the Pinto, Chevette, Gremlin, and even trying
> to "Desielfy" a gas engine with the Oldsmobile's. All were embarrassments.
> I had a '65 bug and used to laugh my way past the gas stations. The problem
> was gas stayed the same price up until pretty recently. So what happened?
> The US car companies went back to making gas guzzlers and the Japanese and
> German cars just improved performance and let their MPG start to slip.
> Nobody cared about gas again. Had we headed down the same path we were
> headed in '82 we'd all be getting 60 MPG right now. So what's going to
> happen next? If gas continues to rise then more and more people will have to
> abandon their SUV's and car companies will have to start offering cars we
> want. If they had used the technology over the last 25 years to improve
> mileage instead of performance we'd be in a better place. If gas prices
> fall or stay the same over the next 10 years guess where we'll be? Well have
> more US build "Hybrids" that get 19 MPG.
>
> Ration gas? I don't think so. I have a Eurovan that gets crap mileage
> around town. Matter of fact my '83 Westy only does slightly better. Why does
> my Eurovan get crappy mileage? Because it has a 6 cylinder (my first 6 cyl
> car I've ever owned) 206 HP engine and an automatic transmission. I like
> driving vans; it's not my fault that they did not sell the diesel Eurovan
> here with the 5 speed manual. That's what I really want and I can't get it.
> The same goes for other cars. I take no responsibly for this van getting
> crappy mileage; I bought what was offered to me. Build me a 35 MPG van and
> I will go buy it, I don't care how slow it is. Build me a 5 speed diesel
> Routan MV and I'm there.
>
> What's my prediction? The bottom is going to drop out of commodity
> speculation (Tech Boom->Mortgage Backed Securities->Commodities->(the next
> bubble)) and gas is going to level off at some point and can all forget
> about gas prices and go by a Hummer.*
>
> Thanks,
> Bryan
>
> *Sarcasm.
>
>
> --
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