Date: Wed, 28 May 2008 10:55:27 -0700
Reply-To: Scott Foss - Shazam <scottdaniel@TURBOVANS.COM>
Sender: Vanagon Mailing List <vanagon@gerry.vanagon.com>
From: Scott Foss - Shazam <scottdaniel@TURBOVANS.COM>
Subject: Re: Gasoline -
In-Reply-To: <2d5213e00805280928g2ec5c066q5fc18c7720c2ccd@mail.gmail.com>
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It's hard to say what will really happen , but there are many
indications that oil will yet be gotten out of the ground in various
countries ( some of which we do not have access to their oil ) for
quite a while yet.
Siberia is pumping petroleum like crazy now, where 15 years ago there
was no oil industry at all there.
Venesula.= they have a lot.
Iran ..........
Nigeria.............
US oil companies are going back into previously abondoned oil fields and
getting more out of the same oil fields form 40 years ago.
In our overall inport picture, I don't think Mexico figures much at all
in what we've been importing.
the bigger concern about petroleum aviablibity ( beside polical factors
) is China and India really ramping up in # of of cars........
China has hundreds of millions of people hungry for their first small
car..............that market ( the # of new cars sold in China ) , which
was nothing say 12 years ago, grows by the several millions of new cars
sold each year.
Inflation grows 'more or less' at a semi-steady rate, over the long haul
- over 40 year periods say.
there are periods of worse inflation and less so. The average i think
runs roughly 4 % per year in the US.
You are suggestin that 6 years we will go from 4 per gal to 15 per gal-
and that's not just inflation in your guestimate of course ........
you are figuring that oil will be scarce, demand will be high......and
thus the price will be 4 X what it is now in 6 years.
possible..............i'm skeptical on that though.
For one thing..............two forms of energy that humans will MAKE
SURE that somehow they have it , get it, and make it - Electricty
( and until electricity or anti-gravity machines or whatever replace
oil ) - and the other one is Oil.
Humans, the species, if it is functional at all, and doesn't go extinct
or near-perish into an insane mess of war and environmental
catastrophy..............will do any thing to get, make, find, fight
over...........etc. ..........oil and electricity.
there is big talk now about going to Nuclear power plants for
electricity - which can power cars and provide transport of course.
i shouldn't be on here right now !
scott
turbovans
Bernie wrote:
> Mexico is running out of oil and is expected to export it's last barrel in
> 2014.
> By 2014 I predict we will be paying 15 dollars a gallon.
> I'm being conservative as it could be higher.
> That's if you will be able to get it as there will be shortages.
> So I guess the question is at what gas prices do most of us decide that
> these vehicles do not work for us anymore.
> Ten dollars a gallon, 15, 20?
> Input anyone.
>
>
> Bernie
>
>
>
