Date: Thu, 11 Sep 2008 05:48:39 -0400
Reply-To: Jim Akiba <syncrolist@BOSTIG.COM>
Sender: Vanagon Mailing List <vanagon@gerry.vanagon.com>
From: Jim Akiba <syncrolist@BOSTIG.COM>
Subject: Now: Subie & Bluetec Diesels Was: T3s & RHD Japs in Vancouver
Island.. ramblings & rantings
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A subie 2.0L 4 cyl. was released in Europe in May I think, no word on
the diesel 6. Current estimate for a possible earliest US release of
the 2.0: 4 cyl diesel is 2010. As of last year however, the release of
the diesel 6 was going to happen in early 08 but hasn't. I think just
two days ago subaru announced the 2.0D version of the Forester for
Europe for later this month, but didn't mention anything at all about
the US. As I've maintained when people first started talking about
clean diesels, watch the bluetec. More likely than not Subie is doing
the same waiting to see what happens with the 50-state bluetec from
VW/mercedes, since they're talking schedule always followings the same
pattern of announcements and delays as the bluetec, esp since the
bluetec is having so many problems. I just heard today that the
bluetec grand cherokee rollout is in danger and isn't looking good,
but I don't have more detail... I suspect they are finding the project
is killed by much worse performance than they anticipated to pass
testing. If the next bluetecs that are in danger(the VWs) do get out,
it looks like no earlier than august 09. The mpg numbers are now in,
and just as I had found hard to believe that they could do 50 or 60
mpg with the bluetec, they can't... Here's a post from Feb this year,
I was commenting about the bluetec mpg that Chris S. had been talking
about:
http://gerry.vanagon.com/cgi-bin/wa.exe?A2=ind0802c&L=vanagon&D=0&P=51149
If the VW bluetec flops, it would likely spell immediate doom for the
future of diesel in US passenger vehicles. It's a tough thing to
expect it to be worth it to add all the active urea catalyst system
and particulate filtering and slice deep into the mpg that people want
it for in the first place.. the new jetta tdi bluetec boasted 60mpg
hwy in the 07 announcements that got folks on the list drooling but
got backhanded into 41mpg as built and passing testing for release
since then. The now on the road bluetec mid-size suv from benz was
supposed to see 40, but it now has a 23 hwy from the EPA but I've read
people talking more in the high teens and being very disappointed..
which is why I guess the grand cherokee bluetec rollout is in
jeopardy... let's hope that VW can both stick to schedule, and not
take a similar hit and offer even more disappointing mileage. If the
bluetec/gas cost/mile gap dwindles into single digits as it's now in
danger of doing, I think it'll be time to start tolling the bells for
it. So figure on a minimum 2011 earliest as of today for the US subie
boxer, if everything doesn't hit the fan., and if it comes out here,
it'll likely take a big hit in economy as well.
Jim Akiba
On Wed, Sep 10, 2008 at 11:51 PM, Andrew Grebneff <goose1047@gmail.com> wrote:
> Any news on the Subaru dieselboxer? These should be on the road by now. =
> I'd be interested in how reliable these turn out to be long-term, which =
> is VERY difficult to find out. And how well they perform. However, with =
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