Date: Thu, 20 Sep 2012 11:58:06 -0700
Reply-To: neil n <musomuso@GMAIL.COM>
Sender: Vanagon Mailing List <vanagon@gerry.vanagon.com>
From: neil n <musomuso@GMAIL.COM>
Subject: Re: How To Choose YOUR Engine Conversion
In-Reply-To: <CAHbJSdVCq2ieUX3=DG82goXOVko83+PbKfAEebWmAe9rdJ1SwA@mail.gmail.com>
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Right on!
Over the last few years, part of what I have posted about on my swap was
how many miles I've put on it, and that it has never left me stranded.
Personal pride and bias was present, but my statement was true. But.....
some may only see this, and think my swap was completely successful. Not
entirely true. Once the bugs were worked out, and I trusted it, I ran it
for thousands of miles (now in carport for more R&D), but not w/o issues
along the way.
Though I try to write accurately, and give all information, and at best
offer science-like info, there are going to be details that I miss. Trouble
shooting, modifying along the way, can all go un noticed (though I post a
lot of publicly accessible images).
One example of a swap related "issue" that though could be seen by anyone
with internet access, would not be easily found. This likely wouldn't
happen to someone else's swap but....
image, brake light switch connector failure:
https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-Q-4lZVwrO80/Tbtu321lSTI/AAAAAAAAEvE/bKRQo9geZ4U/s576/BrakeLightPlugConnector.jpg
why: brake fluid spill corroded terminal? Bulb wattage too high? Don't
know, not swap relevant per se, but this:
image:
https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-F_l14iNGht4/Tbtu4gUcjtI/AAAAAAAAEvI/nDIyy_GLIDU/s750/KustomMetalBoxBurnMark.jpg
Shows the hi/low oil pressure box I made. This is NOT OEM. The brake light
switch wire fell out, would intermittently short to the box (note small
burn mark) and blow a fuse. Initially the fuse blowing happened between
long intervals, so made no sense. I assumed it was an issue with fuse box.
Wrong.
My point: a hack kludge made with incorrect materials, confounded what was
likely an age related issue. This is a fine example of what a bad engine
convertor might do for a customer, and a real life example of what a "shade
tree" such as me, will do because he "just wanted it done" and, that
material was what was on hand. (I did carefully insulate the "L" board from
the box but did not foresee this odd issue. I'm sure Jim has seen this kind
of thing)
images with comments:
https://picasaweb.google.com/musomuso/BrakeLightSwitchConnectorHavoc
The above is just one example of what a DIY type can go through on a true
DIY swap.
My focus on using VW inline engines became biased for a number of reasons.
There is no doubt that is true. I do my best not to poo-poo other swaps. In
fact, I doubt I have done that. But ya, I'm human, so somewhat biased.
;^)
Neil.
On Thu, Sep 20, 2012 at 10:44 AM, Jim Akiba <syncrolist@bostig.com> wrote:
>
>
> ..... Most importantly it means we're subject
> to cognitive bias of various flavors.
>
> If you already like or dislike a brand of automobile consciously or
> subconsciously, you're going to read, learn, read some more, then
> likely decide you've been able to confirm your preconceptions. You
> may not realize you've done it. Not only is it irrational to form a
> like or dislike about specific components based on automotive brand in
> 2012, but confirmation bias is going to help ensure you reinforce what
> you already believe on the subject, even if it's invalid or incorrect.
> That's one reason why the scientific method works to prove things you
> suppose to be false, not the other way around.
>
> If you hear someone offer an opinion about how reliable X brand is,
> and therefore an engine swap using that brand's engine will be great,
> you're likely witnessing a strong confirmation bias. Logically there
> is no connection between the outcome of an engine swap and an opinion
> about the reliability of an automaker's brand. There is a
> relationship, but it is neither simple nor direct. But this is small
> potatoes compared to the larger problem. The bigger problem is one
> that directly affects availability of the thing you need most,
> accurate information.
>
.....
DIYers on the other hand, especially when there isn't a complete
> solution and you have to buy components and make decisions about
> configuration, accept lot's of responsibility. While there are quite a
> few folks who have shared, especially out of need if they are trying
> to recover a problem that's beating them, there are plenty more that
> don't post and have their projects fail outright or make incorrect
> decisions that cost them dearly. You won't have access to much of that
> info, and worse may never know it exists at all.
>
>
>
.....
If you run a company that sells a
> puzzle, if someone puts the puzzle together and is unhappy with the
> result in fit/finish they will likely blame you, and they may be vocal
> about it. If you run a company and you primarily sell only certain
> pieces of a puzzle, the same will not be true. If someone is unhappy
> with the results of the puzzle they put together from pieces from a
> bunch of different vendors, there is nobody to get upset at but
> oneself... and that is where the bias comes in. Not only will they be
> less likely to be vocal about a problem in public, they may not even
> admit there is a problem, or that it really bothers them... and they
> may do so without even knowing it. And once again, you won't have the
> information you really need.
>
>
>
.......
> Another thing folks may never have thought of is the
> process of working on a car until it's totalled. Not only does it
> happen, but happens to way more people than I'd ever conceived of. You
> of course don't typically read those kinds of stories online, as at
> the end of lot's of money and time into something, having *absolutely
> nothing* of value in the end isn't exactly an outcome people are proud
> of. Feature creep is the leading cause of this type of failure BTW so
> watch out (manifest itself in the form, "hey I'm already in there
> doing this... I should do this while I'm at it.." and repeat).
>
>
>
....
The short version of all this is to really try to understand the
> differing nature of information gaps based on market segment and the
> business models of those in them, and in effect have an idea of how
> much you won't be able to know based on the biases of the information
> sources in those segments. It is this area that the most
> differentiation exists between options, but most people don't even
> consider it at all.
>
> Jim Akiba
>
>
--
Neil n
65 kb image Myford Ready For Assembly http://tinyurl.com/64sx4rp
'88 Slate Blue Westy to be named.
'81 VanaJetta 2.0 "Jaco" http://tubaneil.googlepages.com/
Vanagon VAG Gas I4/VR Swap Google Group:
http://groups.google.com/group/vanagons-with-vw-inline-4-cylinder-gas-engines
