Date:         Tue, 20 Apr 1999 23:16:32 -0700
Reply-To:     freeholder bill <bill@FREEHOLDER.COM>
Sender:       Vanagon Mailing List <vanagon@gerry.vanagon.com>
From:         freeholder bill <bill@FREEHOLDER.COM>
Subject:      Re: Tire thread & anecdotal evidence
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"

At 11:27 PM 4/20/99 -0400, you wrote:
>Well, I hate to say this and stir up continued controversy : ) but it is
>fact so here goes:

This is not fact.  It is data.  Please don't confuse them.  If enough data
is accumulated and studied, facts may emerge.  Scientists refer to your
account as anecdotal evidence -- interesting to read, but of no real
significance.  One person's experience may only tell you that they were
lucky.  To be useful, we would need a large, unbiased sample.  Lacking
that, I prefer to follow VW's recommendations, since they have made a
scientific study of the issue.  I haven't, and neither has anyone else on
the list.

On the other hand, if you want to bet the lives of your loved ones on a
roll of the dice, go for it.  Chances are you won't be one of the people
who experience a catastrophic failure.  Does a stronger tire guarantee no
blowouts?  No, but it reduces the chance.  As Damon Runyon wrote, "The race
is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the
way to bet."

Bill (SE Arizona) (Bill@freeholder.com) HTTP://www.freeholder.com
----------------------------------------------------------
You can't do everything, but you can do something.
You can't help everyone, but you can help someone.
Even one candle helps to push back the darkness.